Article Type: Insights

Was sind Functions on Demand?

Was sind sogenannte Functions on Demand (FoDs) für Autos? Diese bahnbrechende Technologie könnte die Fahrzeuggestaltung und -entwicklung verändern, und ebenso, wie Fahrzeughersteller mit Sonderausstattungen umgehen. Auch den Verbrauchern könnte dies zugutekommen, aber was bedeutet es für den Gebrauchtwagenmarkt? Im neuen Autovista24-Erklärvideo (in englischer Sprache) beantwortet Tom Geggus, Autovista24 Deputy Editor, diese Fragen und mehr.

Quelle: Autovista24

Functions on Demand

Obwohl die beiden eng miteinander verwandt sind, sollte man Functions on Demand nicht mit Over-the-Air-Updates verwechseln. Beide nutzen drahtlose Technologie, um die technischen Möglichkeiten eines Fahrzeugs zu verbessern, aber nur ein Modell kann als direkte Einnahmequelle gelten. Mit dem Potenzial für Pay-per-Use- oder Abonnement-Modelle sind die Vermarktungsmöglichkeiten dieses Personalisierungssystems enorm.

FoD ersetzt die werkseitige Personalisierung und ermöglicht es Verbrauchern, die von ihnen gewünschten Funktionen zu aktivieren, wann immer sie wollen. Ob zuschaltbare Navigationssysteme oder hochentwickelte Fahrassistenzsysteme (FAS) – hier besteht ein riesiges Potenzial für die Verbraucherakzeptanz und -nutzung. Da diese Systeme überdies nicht dauerhaft sind, können Nutzer ihre Entscheidungen im Laufe der Zeit kontinuierlich anpassen.

Auch eröffnen sich dadurch neue Geschäftsmodelle für jene Automobilunternehmen, die bereit sind, ihre Fahrzeuge mit allen verfügbaren Funktionen auszustatten. Allerdings ist dies ein heikler Balanceakt: Die in den betreffenden Modellen zu aktivierenden Systeme müssen einerseits erschwinglich genug sein, um massenhaft eingebaut zu werden, andererseits aber auch attraktiv genug, damit die Verbraucher sie einschalten. Unternehmen verlieren diesen Balanceakt, wenn sie sich dazu hinreißen lassen, überhöhte Preise für ein teures, aber unattraktives System zu verlangen.

Gleichzeitig haben FoD-fähige Fahrzeuge das Potenzial, die Restwerte auf dem Gebrauchtwagenmarkt zu erhöhen. Dank eines guten durchschnittlichen Ausstattungsniveaus sowie fortdauernder Flexibilität dürften diese Modelle zu stabilen Restwerten tendieren. Und die Käufer sähen sich seltener mit schwierigen „Friss-oder-stirb”-Entscheidungen konfrontiert, weil ihre Auswahlmöglichkeiten nur auf Modelle beschränkt sind, die ihren Bedürfnissen nicht vollständig entsprechen. Jedoch sollten Automobilhersteller versuchen, eine Möglichkeit zu schaffen, anhand der man erkennen kann, welche FoD-Merkmale ein Fahrzeug hat. Dadurch ließen sich zusätzliche Verwirrung und Wertverluste auf dem Gebrauchtwagenmarkt vermeiden.

FoDs und andere Begriffe aus der Automobilbranche

Dr. Christof Engelskirchen, Autovista Group Chief Economist, und Sonja Nehls, Autovista24 Principal Analyst, haben bereits in einer Autovista24-Podcast-Episode über FoD-Funktionen gesprochen. Dabei ging es unter anderem um die Anwendung und die Auswirkungen von Functions on Demand, sowie um die Performance dieser Technologie auf dem Gebrauchtwagenmarkt.

In der Autovista24-Serie „What is?” werden einige der wichtigsten Begriffe und Technologien der Automobilbranche in englischer Sprache erklärt. Bereits besprochen wurden: Halbleiter, Over-the-Air-Updates (OtA), bidirektionales Laden, Elektrofahrzeuge, Typgenehmigung, autonome Technologie, saisonbereinigter Jahreszins (SAAR), Gesamtbetriebskosten (TCO) und Restwerte (RW).

Abonnieren Sie auch den YouTube-Kanal von Autovista24 und melden Sie sich an, um Benachrichtigungen zu erhalten. Wenn Ihnen ein Video gefällt, können Sie es gerne teilen und liken. Sie können dem Autovista24-Team auch Vorschläge für andere Begriffe aus dem Automobilbereich für ein zukünftiges “What is?„-Video mitteilen, oder sogar ein Thema für die nächste ausführliche Podcast-Diskussion vorschlagen. Gehen Sie einfach auf das Autovista24 Twitter-, LinkedIn- oder YouTube-Profil und hinterlassen Sie dort einen Kommentar.

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Wir möchten Sie darauf hinweisen, dass es sich bei diesem Artikel um eine Übersetzung handelt. Das Original wurde in englischer Sprache auf Autovista24 veröffentlicht. Sollte dieser Artikel kleinere grammatikalische Fehler enthalten, bitten wir, dies zu entschuldigen. Im Falle einer Diskrepanz zwischen den beiden Texten ist die englische Version maßgeblich.

VinFast setzt auf Festkörperbatterien für E-Autos

Der vietnamesische Elektrofahrzeughersteller VinFast hat eine Multi-Millionen-Dollar-Investition in ProLogium angekündigt – einen weltweit führenden Produzenten von Festkörperbatterien.

Im Mittelpunkt steht dabei eine Absichtserklärung, die eine strategische Zusammenarbeit mit dem taiwanesischen Unternehmen für Energieinnovationen vorsieht. Damit soll die Versorgung mit Festkörperbatterien der nächsten Generation sichergestellt werden.

Festkörperbatterien haben das Potenzial, die Elektroautoentwicklung noch einmal zu revolutionieren. Die Technologie verspricht nämlich viele Vorteile für die Sicherheit, Energiedichte, Ladegeschwindigkeit, Wiederverwertbarkeit, Gewichtsoptimierung, Kosten und Langlebigkeit der Batterien.

Batteriezellen ab 2024

Laut VinFast konzentriert sich die Partnerschaft mit ProLogium auf die Erforschung, Entwicklung und Herstellung von Festkörperbatterien. Sie ist ein integraler Bestandteil der zukünftigen Batteriestrategie des Unternehmens. Geplant ist, dass ProLogium ab 2024 Festkörperbatteriezellen liefert, um damit die nächste Generation von Elektrofahrzeugen von VinFast anzutreiben.

Für den noch jungen Automobilhersteller VinFast ist die Investition in die Festkörperbatterietechnologie ein wichtiger Schritt. Er tritt damit in die Fußstapfen von Automobilriesen wie Mercedes-Benz, die gleichfalls eine Kooperation mit ProLogium eingegangen sind, um Festkörperbatterien zu entwickeln.

ProLogiums erste große Festkörperbatteriefabrik soll Anfang 2023 in Betrieb gehen. Sie wird einen erheblichen Teil ihrer Produktionskapazität für die Belieferung von VinFast nutzen. ProLogium und VinFast haben außerdem die Möglichkeit angekündigt, ein Joint-Venture für eine Festkörperbatteriefabrik in Vietnam zu gründen.

„VinFast konzentriert sich darauf, Investitionen zu tätigen und strategische Partnerschaften mit führenden Unternehmen in der Branche sowie mit wegweisenden Technologieunternehmen aufzubauen. Unser Ziel ist es, intelligente und nachhaltige Mobilitätslösungen schnell zu erkennen und anzuwenden“, so Le Thi Thu Thuy, stellvertretende Vorsitzende der Vingroup und CEO von VinFast Global. „Als einer unserer wichtigsten Partner hilft ProLogium VinFast dabei, die Bereitstellung von Festkörperbatterien schnell zu meistern und gleichzeitig weiterhin Elektrofahrzeugprodukte mit fortschrittlicher Batterietechnologie für ein angenehmeres und sichereres Fahrerlebnis zu liefern.“

VinFast, das zur VinGroup gehört, hat vor kurzem bekannt gegeben, für seine Modelle VF8 und VF9 mehr als 50 Verkaufsstellen in ganz Europa eröffnen zu wollen. Der Einstieg in den europäischen Automobilmarkt wird auch von Plänen begleitet, Autos in Deutschland zu bauen.

Für VinFast und die VinGroup ist die Investition in ProLogium ein Weg, um die Batterieversorgung für ihre Elektrofahrzeuge (EV) sicherzustellen. Insbesondere geht es darum, eine bessere Kontrolle über die Menge und Art der Batterieversorgung zu erlangen und den Ansprüchen aller EV-Linien von VinFast gerecht zu werden, sowie auch den Anforderungen des Marktes an hochtechnologische, leistungsstarke, sichere und umweltfreundliche Batterien. Aber warum sind Festkörperbatterien für die zukünftige Entwicklung von Elektrofahrzeugen so wichtig?

Was sind Festkörperbatterien?

Im Gegensatz zu den herkömmlichen Lithium-Ionen-Batterien, die in Elektrofahrzeugen weit verbreitet sind, enthalten Festkörperbatterien keine flüssigen Elektrolyte. Diese Elektrolyte haben die Aufgabe, Ionen durch die Batterie zu transportieren. Das Vorhandensein der Flüssigkeit also ist ein elementarer Faktor, erhöht aber auch das Gewicht.

Dieses Gewicht ist ein wesentlicher Faktor für Hersteller, die sich dazu entscheiden, Festkörperbatterien zu entwickeln. Festkörperbatterien zielen auf den Einsatz geeigneter Materialien ab, die einerseits porös genug sind, damit sich die Ionen in der Zelle bewegen können, aber gleichzeitig stabil und widerstandsfähig genug, um Beschädigungen zu widerstehen und den Belastungen der täglichen Autonutzung standzuhalten.

Warum werden Festkörperbatterien hergestellt?

Festkörperbatterien haben eine höhere Dichte als Lithium-Ionen-Batterien, was die Energiedichte pro Flächeneinheit potenziell erhöhen kann. Dies bedeutet, dass weniger Einheiten im Fahrzeug nötig sind. Außerdem entfällt die Gefahr von Batteriebränden, so dass in einem mit Festkörperbatterien ausgestatteten Fahrzeug mehr Platz für Komponenten bleibt, die die Reichweite des Fahrzeugs nach einem einzelnen Aufladen erhöhen.

Das klingt zwar nach einer perfekten Lösung für einige der Probleme, mit denen Elektroautos derzeit zu kämpfen haben, aber die Technologie steckt noch in den Kinderschuhen. Erstens müssen geeignete Materialien als Ersatz für die Flüssigkeit gefunden werden und zweitens kostet die Entwicklung einer Festkörperbatterie für Elektrofahrzeuge etwa viermal so viel wie die der derzeit weit verbreiteten Lithium-Ionen-Batterien. Dies hat jedoch eine Reihe von Automobilherstellern und Start-ups nicht davon abgehalten, beträchtliche Summen in deren Entwicklung zu investieren.

Anfang dieses Jahres hat Nissan in seinem Forschungszentrum in Kanagawa (Japan) eine Prototyp-Produktionsanlage für laminierte Festkörperbatteriezellen vorgestellt. Der Automobilhersteller gab seine Absicht bekannt, die Technologie im Jahr 2028 auf den Markt bringen zu wollen.

Letztes Jahr unterzeichnete Stellantis eine Vereinbarung zur gemeinsamen Batterieentwicklung mit dem US-amerikanischen Batteriehersteller Factorial Energy, während das niederländische Batterie-Start-up LionVolt seine Gesamtfinanzierung auf über fünf Millionen Euro im Jahr 2021 erhöhte, um die „effizienteste und nachhaltigste Lithium-Ionen-Festkörperbatterie“ zu entwickeln.

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Wir möchten Sie darauf hinweisen, dass es sich bei diesem Artikel um eine Übersetzung handelt. Das Original wurde in englischer Sprache auf Autovista24 veröffentlicht. Sollte dieser Artikel kleinere grammatikalische Fehler enthalten, bitten wir, dies zu entschuldigen. Im Falle einer Diskrepanz zwischen den beiden Texten ist die englische Version maßgeblich.

Segment B (Stadtwagen)-Entwicklung: November 2021

Hohe Nachfrage beschert Stadtwagen gute Restwert-Prognosen

Die Fahrzeuge im Segment B, die sogenannten Stadtwagen, stehen in der Käufergunst der Österreicher und vor allem auch der Österreicherinnen sehr weit oben, da diese Fahrzeuge kompakt und günstig in Anschaffung wie auch im Verbrauch sind.  Viele dieser Fahrzeuge stehen meist als Zweitwagen in den Haushalten im Einsatz und eignen sich perfekt für die täglichen Erledigungsfahrten auf der Kurzstrecke bzw. werden aufgrund der günstigen TCO-Werte auch gerne in vielen Firmenflotten eingesetzt.

Jedoch verlieren sie seit einigen Jahren etwas an Attraktivität gegenüber den SUV-Varianten, die mit einer höheren Sitzposition und besserer Rundum-Sicht punkten. Nichtsdestotrotz können Polo, i20, Fiesta und Co neben den meist preislich höher positionierten B-SUV-Derivaten immer noch gut bestehen und erzielen im Zulassungszeitraum 1-10/2021 von insgesamt 204.636 neu zugelassen PKW mit ca. 29.000 Fahrzeugen 14,2% Marktanteil. Dadurch das jede Modellgeneration meist einige Zentimeter länger und breiter wird, entscheiden sich aber auch viele C-Segment-Fahrer beim Fahrzeugtausch für die Fahrzeuge aus dem B-Segment. Das Ranking in den Neuzulassungen im laufenden Jahr 2021 wird von den Modellen Skoda Fabia, VW Polo und Seat Ibiza des Volkswagen-Konzerns klar angeführt.

Wie im ganzen Segment B, dominiert auch bei dem beliebten Trio klar die Benzin-Motorisierung. Mit dem Renault Zoe findet sich aber ein rein elektrisch betriebenes Fahrzeug auf dem 7. Platz der Neuzulassungen des Segments. Auch bei Opel Corsa, der Peugeot 208 und dem Mini steigt der E-Anteil von Monat zu Monat. Modelle mit einem erheblichen Anteil mit Vollhybrid-Antrieb sind der Toyota Yaris sowie der Renault Clio. Im Oktober 2021 waren bereits 15,7% der Zulassungen im Segment rein elektrisch, weitere 7,2% Hybride. Der Dieselmotor spielt in diesem Segment kaum eine Rolle.

PKW-Neuzulassungen 1-10/2021, Segment B nach Kraftstoffart

Die aktuellen Forecast-Werte (Trade, RW% bzw. in €) für die jeweilige Basisversion mit der Einstiegs-Motorisierung finden Sie in der nachfolgenden Tabelle mit Fahrzeugbezeichnung, Eurotax Nationalen Code sowie dem Neupreis in Euro.

Demzufolge erzielt aktuell (Stand 11-2021) der Audi A1 mit einem Restwert von 47,2 % nach 36 Monaten und 60.000 km Gesamtlaufleistung den höchsten Restwert, gefolgt vom neuen Skoda Fabia (46,7%) und dem Suzuki Swift (46%). Der Toyota Yaris erzielt in der Benzinvariante nur 34,6 %, die sehr beliebten Yaris-Hybridvarianten sind wertbeständiger. Generell erzielen die Stadtwagen aufgrund des relativ günstigen Preises und der guten Nachfrage hohe Wiederverkaufswerte.

Eurotax Österreich – Forecast 11/2021 – Segment B, 36 Monate/60.000 km, Trade

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What is total cost of ownership?

What is total cost of ownership (TCO)? Daily Brief editor Phil Curry explains the terminology and its importance as a cost-comparison tool.

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Are EVs as green as they seem?

The last year has been dominated by a single health emergency that brought the world to its knees. But for decades, scientists and campaigners have been warning of another impending crisis. As governments put environmental regulations in place, carmakers are transitioning into clean mobility companies. Spearheading this change, electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) appear poised to take the helm from internal combustion engines (ICEs). But for this handover to work, these electric models must prove to be environmentally advantageous. Autovista Group Daily Brief Journalist Tom Geggus asks, are EVs as green as they seem?

According to the European Commission, passenger cars are responsible for around 12% of total EU CO2 emissions, putting the automotive industry in the green spotlight. A poll of 15 European cities recently revealed nearly two-thirds of urban residents back a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. OEMs and mobility providers are also supporting a faster transition to zero-emission transport. Volvo Cars, Uber and LeasePlan are among a group of companies calling for an end date to new combustion car purchases in Europe no later than 2035. This would leave a large ICE-sized hole for EVs to plug. But considering its entire lifetime, is an electrified vehicle that much cleaner than a petrol or diesel-powered one?

Significantly smaller footprint

Published in March last year, research from the universities of Cambridge, Exeter and Nijmegen showed that in 95% of the world, an electric car has a significantly smaller carbon footprint than one powered by fossil fuels. Dr Florian Knobloch, University of Cambridge fellow, German Federal Ministry policy advisor, and the paper’s lead author, spoke with Autovista Group’s Daily Brief about the findings.

The academic team carried out extensive life-cycle assessments of emissions produced through vehicle use, as well as production and waste processing. ‘When you look at the production stage, it takes significantly more energy and material input due to the battery,’ Dr Knobloch said. But the EV then makes up for this larger burden across its entire lifetime thanks to far lower running emissions.

‘It is a myth that electric cars do increase emissions, even on a lifetime basis,’ he said. ‘In most parts of the world already, today EVs will decrease emissions, even if you factor in everything from production to recycling.’

‘A snowball effect’

When dividing the world into 59 regions, the research revealed that in 53, electric cars are already less emissions-intensive than one powered by petrol or diesel. These regions include Europe, the US and China. In fact, lifetime emissions from EVs were found to be 70% lower than petrol cars in countries like France and Sweden, where large amounts of electricity are generated through renewable and nuclear sources. However, the same cannot be said for counties like Poland, where dependence on coal-fuelled power stations lingers.

But as grids worldwide are rewired with decarbonisation in mind, even these regions will see more reason to go electric. So, as EVs become increasingly efficient, they will outstrip ICEs which have already reached near-peak efficiency. Dr Knobloch points out that even with the inclusion of greener technology like biofuels, there is little chance for the carbon footprint of ICE vehilces to greatly improve.

This transition to electromobility does take time. Confidence in EVs still needs to build up: from the early adopters to the mainstream. ‘Every EV you buy now increases the chance of more EVs being bought in the future,’ Dr Knobloch explained. As consumers are exposed to an increasing number of EVs, a snowball effect will take place with confidence growing alongside adoption, encouraging more people to take the electric leap. The study projects that globally, half of cars on average could be electric by 2050. This would lower global CO2 emissions by up to 1.5 gigatons annually.

A comparative tool

In Europe, clean-transport campaign group Transport and Environment (T&E), found that electric cars emit on average almost three times less CO2 than their ICE equivalent. Again, this figure considers wider impact, including the sourcing of battery materials, electricity production, and even power-plant construction. To illustrate the difference between the lifetime emissions of EVs and ICEs, T&E created a tool to compare drive types, considering the year of purchase, vehicle type and location, as well as electricity used for battery production.

Lucien Mathieu, manager overseeing road vehicles and e-mobility analysis at T&E, spoke with Autovista Group’s Daily Brief. As the tool’s creator, he explained it aims to combat other bias analysis of electric-car emissions, that might rely on outdated data, particularly given the rapid advance of EV technology. Using the most up-to-date information, T&E’s tool reveals CO2 emissions per kilometre, as well as in tonnes over lifetime.

For example, comparing two medium-sized cars bought in 2020, T&E’s tool reveals the electric car, on average, is responsible for 90 grammes of CO2 per kilometre versus petrol with 253 grammes. Considering tonnes of CO2 over distance driven, the EV’s ‘carbon debt’ from production is paid off quite quickly thanks to its low-usage emissions. This compares starkly to an ICE car, which is far less efficient when converting its fuel into movement.

This canyon between EV and ICE only looks set to grow as battery technology continues to advance, while fossil-fuel cars have already achieved close to their peak efficiency. A T&E study recently calculated that an EV battery uses 30 kilograms of raw materials with recycling, compared to the 17,000 litres of petrol burned by the average car.

‘The valuable minerals mined to make electric-car batteries will be used and reused unlike those of oil,’ said Greg Archer, UK director of T&E. ‘Over its lifetime, an average-engined car would burn through a stack of oil barrels, 25 storeys high, creating about 40 tonnes of CO2 and worsening global warming. In comparison, only 30 kilograms of metals would be lost each time an electric-car battery is recycled – roughly the size of a football.’

This gap will increase as advancements drive down how much lithium is needed to make a battery by half over the next decade. Cobalt will drop by over three-quarters and nickel by around a fifth. So, as EVs develop, T&E plans to keep their tool updated with the latest available evidence, as well as expanding its scope to include plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). But of course, EVs also benefit from technologies developing outside of their own powertrains.

Powering vehicles

At the end of last year, more than 3,500 European power companies, represented through the federation for the European electricity industry, Eurelectric, came out in support of a minimum 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. As more electricity generators and distributors throw their weight behind cleaner-energy solutions, including the use of more renewables, EVs can be expected to become greener.

Speaking with Autovista Group’s Daily Brief, Petar Georgiev, climate and E-mobility lead at Eurelectric, pointed to a larger picture when considering the energy behind EVs. ‘You do have to keep in mind what the actual carbon footprint is in different countries, at different times, and also how it is changing, because for us in the power sector, we clearly see that the grid is becoming cleaner and cleaner,’ he said. ‘But if we have to wait to have a fully renewable grid, and then only start to integrate renewables, that would probably be a very big mistake.’

Because an EV’s CO2 levels can be lowered long before its first charge, it makes sense to take a holistic approach to EV emissions and electricity usage. For example, manufacturers can opt for more efficient production methods, even incorporating renewables into the process. Furthermore, which cars plug into electromobility will be hugely important.

Eurelectric recently identified the electrification of Europe’s vehicle fleets as a ‘catalyst for clean mobility throughout the 2020s.’ The continent’s fleet is made up of 63 million cars, vans, buses, and trucks, operated by private companies or public authorities. The federation explained, however,  that despite only making up 20% of the parc, these vehicles account for 40% of all kilometres travelled. They also account for 50% of CO2 emissions from transport. ‘Electrification of car fleets can be a real game-changer,’ Kristian Ruby, secretary-general of Eurelectric said. ‘It comes with tangible reductions of total costs of ownership and CO2 emissions. So, it is a good deal both for fleet owners and society at large.’

While the electrification of vehicles contains the potential to reduce CO2 emissions dramatically, it is enormously dependent upon usage. So, when asked, ‘are EVs as green as they seem?’ the answer is yes, but adoption rates will determine their success.

Updated whitepaper: How will COVID-19 shape used-car markets?

The latest edition of Autovista Group’s whitepaper: How will COVID-19 shape used-car markets? considers the third-wave of coronavirus infections across Europe, and looks at the lessons learned a year since the pandemic first hit the continent.

The whitepaper covers topics including:

  • One year into COVID-19 and the lessons of resilience
  • Used-car markets 2021 – crisis? What crisis?
  • Electric vehicle (EV) tax guide
  • Europe’s used-car market forecasts for 2021 and 2022

Following the emergence of Europe’s automotive sector from COVID-19 lockdowns, a three-speed development of residual values (RVs) has prevailed across the region. Autovista Group’s COVID-19 tracker, which covers 12 European markets, has revealed that residual value (RV) indices for a number of countries have returned to pre-crisis levels. Some, however, are still struggling.

Autovista Group experts discussed the whitepaper findings in the company’s latest webinar – Europe’s used-car markets – recovery from COVID-19. You can watch the presentation below.

Remaining strong

Used-car markets have proven more resilient than expected. In fact, the pandemic has helped some developments over the finish line that have long been in the making. For example, online sales, an advance that the automotive industry was slow to adopt until COVID-19 made it a necessity. Also supply-chain disruption has pushed demand towards the used-car sector.

In addition, the latest whitepaper looks at forecasts for RV development in Europe for 2021 and 2022. Autovista Group experts analyse the latest trends and scenarios for used-car market development across the continent. As countries are hit by a third-wave of infections, economic recovery may yet extend into 2022, even as vaccination programmes pick up their pace.

You can find more information about how different markets are shaping up, and the various economic scenarios across the region, in the latest update of the Autovista Group whitepaper – ‘How will COVID-19 shape used car markets’ – which can be viewed here.

European new-car registration figures deceptive on first inspection

Registrations in Europe’s biggest markets saw improvements in March 2021, some more dramatic than others. But as Daily Brief editor Phil Curry explains, all is not as it seems.

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel.

SHOW NOTES

European registration rates on slow road to recovery

UK registrations ‘grow’ in March against COVID backdrop

German registrations start slow recovery in March

EU new-car registrations March bounce reflects devastating 2020

Launch Report: BMW iX3 – conventional and balanced electrification

The iX3 is BMW’s first pure-electric X model and is the most conventional, being effectively a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) version of the best-selling X3.

The iX3 offers good performance, with strong linear acceleration – as usual for a battery-electric vehicle (BEV). The model also strikes a good balance between power and battery capacity, with competitive electricity consumption. In terms of agility and dynamics, the iX3 is slightly better than its direct rivals overall. As the battery is located under the car, this also explains the good roadholding.

Standard equipment is comprehensive, including three-zone climate control, heated and powered front seats (with memory function on the driver’s side), BMW Teleservices and wireless phone charging. Safety features include emergency-assist and rear cross-traffic alert. The 458km range of the iX3 is second only to the Jaguar I-Pace’s 470km range, and it has the fastest charging time when connected to an 11kw AC wallbox, of 7.5 hours.

In addition to BMW’s strong brand image, the iX3 is supported by the company’s longer expertise in electrification. This started with the i3, which has been on the market since 2013, and was followed by plug-in hybrid (PHEV) engines offered on different models in the range, including one for the brand’s X family.

As the first conventional BEV from BMW, the iX3 compares well against key competitors. It is offered at an attractive entry price point and the popularity of both the brand and the X3 range should ensure plenty of demand. Given that the iX3 is very close to the X3, BMW’s D-SUV range is now available in diesel, petrol, PHEV and BEV versions.

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the BMW iX3 in France, Spain and the UK. The interactive launch report presents new prices, forecast RVs and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Dieses Bild hat ein leeres Alt-Attribut. Der Dateiname ist BMW-1024x652.jpg

Spain introduces MOVES III incentive scheme

Spain introduced the new MOVES III incentive scheme for electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) on 10 April, which includes hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCHVs) for the first time.

All FCHVs, as well as battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) that cost less than €45,000 (excluding VAT), are eligible, with the price ceiling rising to €53,000 for vehicles with eight or nine seats. Used EVs that are less than nine months old are also eligible.

It is worth noting that across Spain and the major European markets, the residual-value (RV) disadvantage of BEVs compared to petrol cars has widened since March 2020. The greatest divergence has occurred in Germany, where the gap has widened by just under four percentage points (pp) and stood at 10 pp in January 2021. The divergence accelerated notably following the introduction of enhanced incentives on 1 July 2020.

Cautionary tale

This is a cautionary tale for Spain as it rolls out this new scheme. All governments should look into providing incentives to encourage used-BEV ownership, but these do not need to be straightforward purchase incentives. Lower energy costs for charging BEVs and visible expansion of the charging network would also be powerful signals.

‘The biggest potential risk for pressure on RVs stems from the purchase incentives for EVs. A positive and moderating effect comes from the longer-term ownership tax reduction and a lack of company-car tax benefit,’ commented Ana Azofra, head of valuations and insights at Autovista Group in Spain.

As detailed in the table below, private buyers of EVs with an electric range of at least 90 km are entitled to a subsidy of €4,500 in Spain, which is reduced to €2,500 for EVs with a range of 30 to 90 km.

IDAE MOVES III incentive scheme 1

Source: IDAE

For small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the incentives amount to €2,900 for EVs with an electric range of at least 90 km, reducing to €1,700 with a range of 30 to 90 km. For large companies, the incentives are €2,200 for EVs with an electric range of at least 90 km and €1,600 with a range of 30 to 90 km.

MOVES III incentive scheme

Source: IDAE

The scheme runs until the end of 2023, with an initial budget of €400 million, rising to €800 million dependent on its success. This is significantly higher than the original funding allocation of €100 million for the MOVES II scheme that came into effect in June 2020, which the Spanish government extended by €20 million early in March.

‘We have chosen to start with those actions that families, SMEs, the self-employed and, ultimately, the entire fabric of the country can benefit from,’ explained Teresa Ribera, vice president of Spain and minister for the ecological transition and the demographic challenge, in the presentation of the MOVES III plan.

‘It is crucial to keep pace with the actions promoting the value chain of the automotive sector in our country, with the creation of employment and new business models,’ Ribera added.

Unlikely improvement

The new incentives are slightly higher for private buyers but lower for companies. However, the benefits are much greater if a used vehicle over seven years of age is traded in for scrappage. For private buyers, the incentive increases up to €7,000, and up to €4,000 for SMEs and €3,000 for large companies.

‘MOVES III constitutes the most ambitious line of support for electric mobility that our country has proposed and will allow and contribute to the economic reactivation in the short term, accompanying the necessary transformation of the industrial model of our country with the economic and environmental objectives,’ Ribera said.

Nevertheless, the new scheme is unlikely to significantly improve the fortunes of Spain’s new-car market. Registrations grew 128% in March compared with a year ago, but the comparison is distorted by the pandemic. Spanish dealerships closed from 14 March 2020. A more realistic comparison with March 2019 shows the new-car market contracting by 30%. Sales in the first quarter dropped 14.9% against last year’s figures, and were 41.3% down on figures from two years ago.

EV uptake should increase, especially among private buyers, but without an improvement in consumer confidence, and a return of tourism, the Spanish market will continue to struggle overall. Autovista Group forecasts that demand will recover from the 32% loss in 2020, albeit by only 6% to about 900,000 units in 2021.

German registrations start slow recovery in March

New-car registrations in Germany increased 35.9% in March, according to the latest figures from the Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA).

The figure was inflated due to the country’s first COVID-19 lockdown closing dealerships from mid-March in the previous year. However, at that time, registrations performed well compared to other countries. While Spain, France and Italy posted losses of 69.3%, 72.2% and 85.4%, respectively, Germany only saw a decline of 37.7%.

At the end of the first quarter, new registrations totalled 656,452 units, down 6.4% compared to the first three months of last year. This is despite dealerships being closed. The country’s market also suffered due to a VAT increase, with taxes rising from 16% to 19% at the beginning of the year. Autovista Group estimates that around 40,000 registrations were pulled forward into December last year as a result.

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Brand increases

All domestic brands showed positive growth in March 2021, the strongest being Smart with a 304.4% increase. Double-digit increases were recorded by Opel (75.1%), Mini (58%), Porsche (55%), Volkswagen Passenger Cars (VW) (39.1%), Mercedes (36.7%), Audi (17.6%) and BMW (17%). VW claimed the largest share of new registrations, taking 19.3% of the market.

Alfa Romeo showed the most significant increase among the imported brands, up by 114.6%. Fellow Stellantis stablemate Peugeot saw sales grow 78.4% while Tesla enjoyed a 63.6% boost. However, Honda (-33.3%), Mitsubishi (-30%) and Jaguar (-10%) were among those to see sales decline in the month.

Electric closes the gap

In terms of fuel type, the market for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) achieved a significant increase of 191.4%, with a market share of 10.3%. With German car brands such as VW and BMW increasing their focus on electrification, there now seems to be an appetite for the technology amongst buyers. Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models achieved a 12.2% market share, with sales increasing 277.5% in the month.

The swing to electric drives is more evident when internal combustion engines (ICE) sales are considered. New registrations of passenger cars with petrol engines increased by 7.1%. However, the market share was just 39.4%. The sale of diesel models continued to decline, with 5% fewer in March 2021 for a 22.1% market share. For the second successive month, diesel sales were outpaced by those of hybrids. When including standard and PHEV models, this powertrain type took 27.8% of the market.

The figures, therefore, show that 38.1% of registrations in Germany during the last month were non-ICE models. This is just 1.3% below the market share of petrol in March. It may not be long until sales of these vehicles outpace those of more traditional powertrains.

Germany extended its lockdown period to 18 April following a spike in infection cases. However, the Federation of Motor Trades and Repairs (ZDK) argued that vehicle dealers should be allowed to reopen fully. The group’s main argument is that while a hairdresser, with a floor space of 10m2, is allowed to have one customer, car showrooms with a floor space of 500m2 cannot open.

European registration rates on slow road to recovery

Three big European markets saw tremendous new-car registration growth in March 2021. However, as Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry explains, not all is as it seems.

While COVID-19 is still impacting the automotive market, March registration figures from France, Spain and Italy would give the casual observer cause for optimism. However, the period with which they are compared – March 2020 – was one of the worst for new-car sales because of the global pandemic. It marked the beginning of a prolonged period of severe declines for the automotive sector. April and May will also be subject to distorted 2020 comparisons as the pandemic’s economic impact unfolded.

March registrations in France grew 191.7% year-on-year, while in Spain, the growth was 128%, and Italy saw an increase of 497.2%. However, in 2020 these markets saw declines of 72%, 69% and 85.4%, respectively as lockdowns and other pandemic measures were implemented.

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March 2020 saw the beginning of a three-month lockdown in these countries, with Italy hardest hit as infection rates increased. The country closed its dealerships on 12 March, with France and Spain shutting up shop on 14 March. Sales had slowed before this period as businesses and consumers came to terms with the disruption caused by the ‘new’ virus.

COVID-19 continues to cause problems and the automotive industry is working hard to adjust. Carmakers have strengthened their online-buying channels, while governments introduced green-vehicle incentives, although most of these have now been exhausted or concluded. Businesses are also using this quieter time to update their fleets, which has helped boost sales in some markets.

Quarterly recovery

In France, 182,774 passenger cars were registered last month, compared to 62,668 in 2020, according to data from the CCFA. But to get a true sense of the market’s state, a comparison to the last non-COVID affected period is needed. Looking at the latest figures against March 2019, the French market is 19% down.  

Over the year so far, sales are up 21% compared to the first quarter of 2020. March’s figures have helped turn around a 14% deficit from the first two months of 2021, although the 441,791 registrations are still well below 2019’s three-month level of 553,335.

During Q1 2021, and after a mixed start to the year, sales of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) in France have picked up. From January to March, 14% of new-car registrations were plug-in capable, against 11.2% over the whole of last year. These numbers may continue to build until July when the French government will reduce its plug-in grant by €1,000.

‘In March alone, [penetration] even reached 15%, which is excellent news,’ said Cécile Goubet, general delegate of Avere-France. ’The enthusiasm is explained by the number of new models, the communication of manufacturers on the benefits of electric, and the purchasing aid which currently remains high,’ she added.

France announced the closure of non-essential retail stores last month in an effort to fight rising COVID-19 infection rates. However, dealerships are allowed to remain open, albeit for visits by appointment only.

Lack of tourism

Spanish industry body ANFAC reported growth of 128%. This meant 85,819 units were added to the country’s roads, compared to just 37,644 in March last year. However, this is a 30% decrease on the same period in 2019. Sales in the first quarter dropped 15% against last-year’s figures, and are 41.3% down on figures from two years ago.

Across the various sector channels, the market suffered from an absence of tourism at Easter. This is a period where rental firms renew their fleets, offering newer vehicles for tourists. Mobility restrictions caused this market to fall 38.6% compared to March 2019, registering the most significant decrease in sales of any sector.

‘The comparison of sales for the first quarter of 2021 with respect to the same period of 2019 reveals that the COVID-19 recovery is far from reaching the automotive sector in Spain,’ explained Noemi Navas, communication director of ANFAC. ‘With an accumulated fall in the quarter of more than 40%, no short-term sign is detected that suggests that this reduction in the market will be offset shortly. 

‘The recovery of the automotive industry is closely linked to that of tourism and consumer confidence. These indicators largely depend on the rate of vaccination and the general economic situation. It is worth noting that in Spain the registration tax was de facto raised in January and that the RENOVE plan was cancelled without spending the entire budget. We will have to wait at least for the second semester to see improvement data.’

Unfair comparisons

Meanwhile, Italy recorded a staggering rise against last year. It was the first and hardest hit market by COVID-19 in March 2020. The 497.2% increase equates to 169,684 units, against just 28,415 in the third month of last year. In the first quarter of 2021, sales were up 28.7% in comparison to ‘the worst three-month period ever’ according to industry body ANFIA.

‘After the negative performances of January (-14%) and February (-12.3%), in March the car market shows a positive sign. However, this is distorted by the comparison with a month that was without precedent in terms of negative performance, the result of the shock generated by the outbreak of the health emergency in our country,’ said Paolo Scudieri, president of ANFIA.

Therefore, since it is a completely unequal comparison, it makes more sense to compare this third month of 2021 with March 2019. Here, registrations are down by 12.7%, a sign that the pandemic’s effects are still impacting the sector’s recovery. It is hampered further by an uncertain economic situation and a crisis in the supply of certain raw materials that is persisting.’

Overall outlook

Figures for April and May will also likely be skewed as markets across Europe claw back sales lost in a period of extreme measures from 2020. It will now become essential to compare figures from this year to those from 2019 to chart how the industry is recovering. While sales are projected to improve year-on-year in 2021, as is demonstrated in the Spanish market, other factors, such as a lack of tourism and therefore a drop in rental renewals, can continue to hurt the industry throughout the year.

Much depends now on vaccination efforts. COVID-19 infections are rising at different rates across the continent. Still, markets that can increase the number of vaccinations, reopen and achieve some form of normality will recover more quickly. It will not be until 2022 that vehicle registrations can genuinely look to rebound.

Launch Report: Volkswagen Caddy – improved engines and specifications

The Volkswagen (VW) Caddy has been redesigned from the ground up, with improved safety, space, engines, and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). The fit and finish, digital cockpit, and general specification improvements make the model feel more like a VW passenger car. The driving dynamics are very good too, with outstanding roadholding and vehicle stability, as well as a good level of comfort.

Both the Caddy and the Caddy Maxi have grown in length and wheelbase, providing more cargo space. As the model is bigger, the maximum payload is slightly lower, but is the highest among key competitors. However, the loading volume of the Caddy is slightly below average, with the cargo space allowing for just one Euro pallet (only the long-wheelbase Maxi version accommodates two), while most competitors take two in standard form.

The new model hosts a comprehensive offer of assistance systems, including trailer-assist, which is a unique selling point in the segment. The modern interior and digital cockpit are advantageous for dual-use customers, i.e. drivers that use the vehicle for both commercial and private purposes.

The latest Euro 6 diesel engines benefit from huge emissions reductions and better fuel economy, supported by the new double SCR (selective catalytic-reduction) system. The 102-horsepower 2.0TDI has the lowest fuel consumption and CO2 emissions among its key rivals. There is not a fully-electric version of the new Caddy available, unlike small PSA Group and Renault vans. However, a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) version is planned for 2022. A compressed natural gas (CNG) version is already available in France, and will be available to order in Spain from December 2021.

The Caddy has a lower entry list price than its predecessor, but pricing is generally higher than those of other mainstream competitors. However, the fuel savings and reduced CO2 emissions will improve running costs and should entice new buyers. Furthermore, the development of working-from-home, and closures of non-essential retail, have led to an increase in home deliveries, benefiting demand for vans, and their residual values (RVs).

Click here or on the image below to read Autovista Group’s benchmarking of the VW Caddy in France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The interactive launch report presents new prices, forecast RVs and SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis.

Launch Report: VW Caddy

Video: How are touchscreens changing interior car design?

Autovista Group’s chief economist Dr Christof Engelskirchen and Sam Livingstone, director of automotive agency Car Design Research, discuss the rising trend of touchscreens in vehicle-interior design. Are they safe, and will the technology age as advancements progress?

Watch the first part of the two-part interview here where investment in the car industry is discussed: How can carmakers attract investment?

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel.

Video: Europe’s registrations struggle in February but improvements to come

Autovista Group Daily Brief editor Phil Curry discusses the registration figures from Europe’s big five automotive markets. While numbers may be down, the outlook for the whole year is more positive…

To get notifications for all the latest videos, you can subscribe for free to the Autovista Group Daily Brief YouTube channel.

Show notes

Lockdown drives German new-car registrations down by 19% in February

February UK new-car registrations plunge to level of 1959

Significant downturns in European registrations in February

Conditional reopening of German car showrooms

England’s car showrooms to remain closed until 12 April

Podcast: How is European automotive adapting to pandemic and climate-change fallout?

Daily Brief editor Phil Curry and journalist Tom Geggus discuss key activities and developments in the European automotive sector from the past fortnight. These include COVID-19’s effect on the uptake of mobility-as-a-service (MAAS), different fuel types, and autonomous technology.

Show notes

Cazoo buys Cluno as CaaS options increase

Significant downturns in European registrations in February

Lockdown drives German new-car registrations down by 19% in February

February UK new-car registrations plunge to level of 1959

VW accelerates towards electric and digital future

VW aims for commercialised autonomous systems in 2025

Is it too early to go ‘EV-only’?

Ford to be zero-emission capable in Europe by 2026

Jaguar makes BEV and hydrogen changes on path to net zero

Volvo to go all electric and online by 2030

E-fuels gain awareness as Mazda joins alliance

How are new and used-car sales faring in Poland?

Dealers in Poland did not shut down during the pandemic last year. They adapted quite quickly to new forms of sales, such as remote and online selling. However, vehicle registration offices operated erratically and the climate of uncertainty negatively impacted sales. Marcin Kardas, head of editorial at Autovista Polska, considers the impact of the pandemic on the Polish automotive market and how it may fare in 2021.

During the pandemic in 2020, car factories around the world halted production, limiting the choice of vehicles to be stockpiled. The situation slowly began to ease just before the summer holidays. Manufacturing restarted, but demand was at a much lower level than the year before.

In Poland, it was important to keep fleets as the main player in terms of new vehicles. In an uncertain economic climate, various forms of lease contracts were massively extended and planned replacement of cars did not go ahead. This, in turn, resulted in the relatively high availability of stock cars, but interest in them was still below expectations, with the exception of the premium segment. Added to this was the prospect of a change in EU emission standards for new passenger cars from 1 January 2021.

Importers were trying at all costs to get rid of vehicles with the old Euro 6d-TEMP standard but the spectre of fines for failing to meet CO2 emission targets and the change to Euro 6d-engine technology has fuelled  a sharp rise in new-car prices, further reducing the attractiveness of the offer. In this context, the demand for premium cars is very apparent.

The price of new cars has risen sharply, further limiting their attractiveness. In this context demand for premium-brand cars continues. It seems that the difficult market situation may have even fuelled sales for this tier. It should be remembered, however, that for years the heavily-discounted prices of new cars in higher segments came close to the rising prices of those in lower segments. Additionally, the subsidies paid to entrepreneurs could be spent in part on the purchase of new vehicles.

’The automotive sector was not spared the hardships associated with the reality of a pandemic. Restrictions on international transport, factory shutdowns, sanitary regime requirements or even economic problems have had a significant impact on the market situation. Reductions in supply, fluctuations in demand and uncertainty among both sellers and buyers are just some of the phenomena observed, which have not been without effect on the level of vehicle values,’ noted Autovista Polska data analyst Mariusz Smoliński.

‘At the same time, emission restrictions were tightened, which translated into higher prices of new cars as well as an increased presence of hybrids and electric cars in importers‘ offers. Forecasting the situation in 2021 is extremely complicated, but undoubtedly the further course of the fight against the pandemic and its consequences will play a key role,’ he added.

In 2021, the situation should stabilise and prices should stop rising, but much will still depend on the pandemic and the effectiveness of vaccines. Sales in Poland should increase due to higher fleet-customer activity, although they will certainly not return to 2019 levels as of yet. It is also important to remember the ongoing shift to remote working. This removes the need for company cars or limits to vehicle mileage and periodic replacement. Manufacturers will face a difficult period of recovery from the crisis, combined with huge expenditure on the introduction of new technologies and electrification.

 Used cars surge as restrictions ease

The used-car market experienced a surge in 2020. The spring pandemic wave in Poland and Europe effectively blocked the sale of used cars, but once the restrictions were lifted, there was an unexpectedly large increase in demand.

Since mid-2020, there has been a real boom in Poland and it was only towards the end of the year that demand significantly calmed down. This was probably related to gradual market saturation, the holiday season and the spectre of further restrictions during the second wave of the pandemic. This was confirmed by a sharp slowdown in sales since November. The reasons for such a high interest in second-hand cars were many:

  • The desire to isolate and avoid public transport;
  • The lower financial risk in uncertain times;
  • The closure of factories, which created a problem with the availability of new vehicles; and
  • Very favourable fuel prices, which fell during the pandemic.

However, this does not fully explain the huge demand for the youngest used cars, namely cars that are one to three years old. These vehicles have not been particularly popular for several years, losing out to rental offers for new vehicles.

One explanation may be the increase in list prices, which has caused the gap between the value of second-hand vehicles and new vehicles on the domestic market. In Europe, demand for used cars has also risen sharply and Polish dealers have taken advantage of lower prices at home and started to export them in large numbers.

It should also be remembered that during the lockdowns in Europe, interstate borders were temporarily closed and quarantines imposed, which appear to have resulted in a reduced supply of second-hand cars – affecting mainly older vehicles and those of American origin. Either way, demand was so strong that by the end of 2020, the youngest cars were becoming scarce and their market values exceeded prices from early 2020.

Based on the Autovista Group COVID-19 tracker, the statistical increase in Poland amounted to 2.7%. The fastest effect was felt by the youngest cars, but at the moment the largest increases can be seen in vehicles five years old and older.

Poland price index by vehicle age for 12 months from 1 February 2020

Grafik Preisindex für Gebrauchtwagen nach Alter in Polen
Source: Residual Value Intelligence, Autovista Group

Confirmation of the good situation in the secondary market is also supported by the average time to sell used cars, which for the popular segments, has returned to the levels seen at the end of 2019. For premium cars it is even lower.

The continuation of the good run for used cars in 2021 will depend on the economic situation, the extent of unemployment and progress with pandemic mitigation. The return to work or the possibility of free movement, including in Europe, will determine purchasing behaviour. In Poland, we can expect to see an increase in the supply of used cars due to the postponed replacement of fleets in 2020 and the gradual removal of import barriers caused by lockdown.

King of the road – the future of the SUV

Andreas Geilenbrügge, head of valuations and insights at Schwacke, considers the rising demand for SUVs and the implications for residual values.

There is something mystical about the design of sports-utility vehicles (SUVs). Initially, the American combination of ‘sports’ (on the other side of the Atlantic, the generic term for all sporting activities) and ‘utility’ (utility vehicles) was intended to demonstrate a chic combination of leisure activity and utility value. The idea was to set themselves apart from the purely utility-oriented rustic charm of off-road vehicles. In the meantime, it has become an increasingly used term worldwide, which ultimately seems to mean only one thing for sure: higher ground clearance.

For some, SUVs stand for unnecessary size and weight – an environmental sin. For others, they are the holy grail in terms of status symbols, with comfortable entry and an increased feeling of safety. Today, more than half of all German SUV customers do without four-wheel drive, which used to be the norm for almost 90%, leaving most models with only their visual outdoor appearance. Some models, not only in the small segments, are even offered exclusively with only one driven axle. Ultimately, SUVs have steadily taken more market share from their siblings in classic body styles, and there is no end in sight.

One for all

Since the beginning, the attractiveness of SUVs has been reflected in higher residual values (RVs), both in absolute and relative terms, compared to their siblings. This is despite the fact that registrations have doubled in Germany since 2012, and even quadrupled compared to 2007. Following the current trend of SUV coupés – still four-door models despite the extended name – premium manufacturers are now waiting in the wings to add small-car crossovers to their ranges in the future. The question that legitimately arises is how long this can continue in a volume-driven and saturated used-car market. So, what can be expected with steadily growing volumes in terms of the high RVs?

A reassuring answer in advance: nothing will change any time soon concerning the advantageous sales prices and rising volumes of SUVs. However, RVs of the high-riding vehicles, which have been so accustomed to success, have not been stable for a while now. They are enduring crises and downturns like the rest of the market (Figure 1).

Figure 1: RVs by segment, Germany, 36months/60,000km, January 2016 to February 2021

Wohnmobile nach Segmenten, Deutschland, 36Monate/60.000km, Januar 2016 bis Februar 2021

Source: Residual Value Intelligence, Autovista Group, volume-weighted values

An important influencing factor here, besides the increased volumes of SUVs, is the competition among themselves. According to IHS Markit, there were around 70 models on offer in 2010, with an average of 4,700 registrations per model. By 2019, this had risen to nearly 130 models, with almost 10,000 registrations per model. However, the new-car market is starting to tilt. Additional market entries are increasingly creating a distribution struggle. Average registrations per model are declining significantly, and the share of models with less than 2,000 units per year is forecast to rise from 14% in 2010 to 44% in 2027 (Figure 2).

Figure 2: New SUV registrations and forecast, Germany, 2010 to 2027

SUV-Neuzulassungen und Prognose, Deutschland, 2010 bis 2027

Source: IHS Markit

Future outlook: bright to cloudy

The time horizon is still relatively far in the distance, especially since the second-hand market is always a few years behind. Nevertheless, it is worth preparing for. In times of growing competition, differentiation is key. Optics and brand-image cultivation are certainly important instruments, and electrification is an additional playing field.

However, as a used car, equipment geared to future needs can contribute to value retention and differentiation from the competition. First and foremost, in order not to fall into a fight for the lowest price and follow a downward spiral. After all, the cake will be big enough, just the individual slices need to be filling and tasty.

The original article can be found in German on the Schwacke website here.

The remarketing risk of EVs

The remarketing of electrically-chargeable vehicles (EVs) is examined by Autovista Group experts in our latest webinar. The mixed approach across Europe to provide stimuli for EV sales is paying off, with forecasters predicting a 40% market share for the technology by 2030. Does the increase in registrations trigger new remarketing risks? The panel considers whether the increasing sales of EVs will impact RV performance over the next three years. It also looks at potential differences in risk between BEV and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs).

You can view the entire webinar below, or download the slide deck here.

Autovista Group will be running a number of webinars looking at automotive trends this year. To be notified of upcoming events, subscribe to the Autovista Group Daily Brief.

Monthly Market Dashboard: Lockdowns impact RVs and stock days in February

Autovista Group’s interactive monthly market dashboard (MMD) reveals that residual-value and stock-day developments are being adversely affected by the ongoing lockdown restrictions in Germany and the UK in February. Senior data journalist Neil King explores the analytics.

This month’s MMD reveals that the average residual values (RV) of cars aged 36 months and with 60,000km were higher in all the Big 5 European markets in February than a year earlier. However, values were lower than reported for Italy and the UK in January.

RV retention, represented as a percentage, declined month on month in Italy and the UK too, along with Germany. The largest decline in RV-percentage (RV%) terms was in the UK, where the average was 46%, equating to a 3.8% change compared to January. The country remains in lockdown, with restrictions on dealer activity in England extended to 12 April.

Similarly, German dealerships remain closed until 7 March. The month-on-month downturn in RV retention in February was only minimal, but Germany is the only major European market where the RV% was lower in February 2021 than in February 2020, albeit by only 0.4%.

Monatsupdate Februar 2021

Rising stock days in Germany and UK

In addition to the pressure on RVs, three-year-old cars are selling more slowly than a month ago in Germany and the UK as the closure of dealerships (except for online ‘click-and-collect’ sales and servicing/repairs) hinder transactions. The average number of stock days rose by 9%, to 55 days, in Germany and by 14%, also to 55 days, in the UK over the last month.

Compared to February 2020, three-year-old cars are moving on more slowly in France, Spain and the UK. The latter is suffering the greatest slowdown in the average number of days for 36-month-old cars to sell, up 35%. In contrast, cars are still selling quicker than a year ago in Germany as stock days dramatically reduced from July 2020 until the end of the year, before rising since.

The fastest-selling cars in the major European markets in February 2021 are in Italy. The Volvo XC60, BMW X1 and Kia Sportage are all taking fewer than 30days to find a new home.

RV-outlook adjustments

The new MMD also features the latest Autovista Group RV outlook. A downward trend is forecast in 2021, with prices of used cars in the 36 months/60,000km scenario declining in all the Big 5 European markets. In the February update, the RV outlook was improved slightly for Italy, but values are still forecast to decline by 3.1% in 2021. Used-car prices are forecast to decline by 0.4% in France, 0.7% in Germany, 1.1% in Spain and 1.4% in the UK in 2021.

In Germany, the outlook has improved slightly for 2022, with the RV decline limited to 0.2%, but Spain’s growth outlook has been downgraded from stability to a contraction of 0.5%. For 2023, the RV outlook has been revised subtly downwards in both Germany and Spain. RVs are still forecast to rise in all markets except Germany however, albeit only minimally.

Click here or on the screenshot above to view the monthly market dashboard for February 2021.

Podcast: How does electric impact residual values and used-car strategies?

The Autovista Group Daily Brief team takes a look at some of the biggest automotive trends of the past fortnight. Phil Curry, Neil King and Tom Geggus discuss electrically-chargeable vehicle residual values, electromobility strategies and modular electric platforms.

Show notes

Surging demand for new BEVs mounts pressure on residual values

France invests €100 million in EV-charging infrastructure

Call for one million public EV chargers in the EU by 2024

Ford to be zero-emission capable in Europe by 2026

Jaguar makes BEV and hydrogen changes on path to net zero

REE maps out UK engineering centre

Shell to transform into net-zero energy provider by 2050